Methodology & Risk Factor Breakdown

What we look at:

• •Price vs 200-day SMA (Mayer Multiple) - 40% weight
• •Distance to Bull Market Support Band (BMSB proxy) - 40% weight
• •Weekly momentum (RSI-14 on weekly samples) - 20% weight

Why it matters:

Multi-factor approach captures both valuation stretch and momentum persistence. Combines price vs trend (Mayer), technical support levels (BMSB), and sustained directional moves (weekly RSI).

How it affects risk:

↑ Mayer Multiple + ↑ BMSB distance + ↑ weekly RSI ⇒ ↑ risk; below trend with weak momentum ⇒ ↓ risk

Update cadence & staleness:

Daily updates; stale >48h

Primary sources:

Caveats:

Weekly RSI uses every 7th day sampling to avoid smoothing artifacts. Trend can stay elevated in strong markets.

What we look at:

• •Net Liquidity Level (WALCL - RRPONTSYD - WTREGEN) - 30% weight
• •4-week Rate of Change (short-term trend) - 40% weight
• •12-week Momentum/Acceleration (trend strength) - 30% weight

Why it matters:

Multi-factor approach captures both absolute liquidity and directional changes. Rate of change is more predictive than levels alone, while momentum shows trend sustainability.

How it affects risk:

↑ net liquidity + ↑ growth rate + ↑ acceleration ⇒ ↓ risk; contracting liquidity ⇒ ↑ risk

Update cadence & staleness:

Weekly updates; stale >8 days

Primary sources:

Caveats:

Macro proxy; RRP data may be sparse during normalization periods. Indirect relationship to BTC.

What we look at:

• •Aggregate Supply Growth (USDT 65%, USDC 28%, DAI 7%) - 50% weight
• •Growth Momentum (7d vs 30d acceleration) - 30% weight
• •Market Concentration Risk (HHI diversification) - 20% weight

Why it matters:

Multi-stablecoin approach captures total crypto buying power. Supply growth indicates liquidity expansion, momentum shows sustainability, and concentration measures systemic risk from dominance.

How it affects risk:

↑ aggregate supply growth + ↑ momentum + ↓ concentration ⇒ ↓ risk; supply contractions or high concentration ⇒ ↑ risk

Update cadence & staleness:

Daily updates; stale >48h

Primary sources:

Caveats:

Exchange behavior, regulatory events, and chain migrations can create temporary distortions. HHI reflects current market structure risk.

What we look at:

• •21-day Rolling Sum (all ETFs combined) - 40% weight
• •Flow Acceleration (7d recent vs previous 7d) - 30% weight
• •ETF Diversification (HHI concentration risk) - 30% weight

Why it matters:

Multi-dimensional institutional demand analysis. Rolling sum captures sustained momentum, acceleration shows trend changes, and diversification measures systemic risk from single ETF dominance.

How it affects risk:

↑ sustained inflows + ↑ acceleration + ↑ diversification ⇒ ↓ risk; concentrated outflows ⇒ ↑ risk

Update cadence & staleness:

Business days; stale >5 days

Primary sources:

Caveats:

Holidays/reporting lags. HHI reflects current ETF market structure. Schema changes may affect data parsing.

What we look at:

• •Funding Rate Level (BitMEX 30-day average) - 40% weight
• •Funding Rate Volatility (instability measure) - 30% weight
• •Term Structure Stress (funding-spot divergence) - 30% weight

Why it matters:

Multi-dimensional leverage analysis captures both intensity and instability. Funding levels show leverage demand, volatility indicates market stress, and divergence measures term structure health.

How it affects risk:

↑ funding rates + ↑ volatility + ↑ stress divergence ⇒ ↑ risk; negative funding + low volatility ⇒ ↓ risk

Update cadence & staleness:

Daily updates; stale >24h

Primary sources:

Caveats:

Single venue dependency (BitMEX). Extreme events may cause API failures. Funding-spot correlation assumes efficient arbitrage.

What we look at:

• •Network Congestion (transaction fees vs history) - 35% weight
• •Transaction Activity (daily transaction count) - 30% weight
• •NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions proxy) - 35% weight
• •Hash Rate Security (network security adjustment) - ±5 points

Why it matters:

Multi-dimensional on-chain analysis captures network usage patterns and valuation metrics. Congestion shows demand pressure, activity reflects adoption, NVT indicates overvaluation, and hash rate provides security context.

How it affects risk:

↑ congestion + ↑ activity + ↑ NVT ⇒ ↑ risk; ↑ hash rate security ⇒ slight ↓ risk adjustment

Update cadence & staleness:

Daily updates; stale >24h

Primary sources:

Caveats:

NVT proxy uses trading volume instead of transaction volume. Hash rate spikes can be temporary. Fee spikes may be event-driven (ordinals, etc.).

What we look at:

• •Search Attention (Bitcoin trending rank) - 40% weight
• •Price Momentum Signal (7d vs 7d performance) - 35% weight
• •Volatility Social Signal (14-day price volatility) - 25% weight

Why it matters:

Social sentiment proxy using available data sources. Search attention captures retail interest spikes, price momentum reflects social sentiment (bullish/bearish), and volatility indicates attention-driving market activity.

How it affects risk:

↑ search attention + ↑ bullish momentum + ↑ volatility ⇒ ↑ risk; low attention + bearish/neutral momentum + low volatility ⇒ ↓ risk

Update cadence & staleness:

Daily updates; stale >48h

Primary sources:

Caveats:

Limited to available free APIs. Price-based sentiment is indirect. Trending searches may not fully capture broader social sentiment. No direct social media or Google Trends integration.

What we look at:

• •Dollar Strength Pressure (DXY momentum analysis) - 35% weight
• •Interest Rate Environment (yield changes + curve shape) - 30% weight
• •Risk Appetite Gauge (VIX level + momentum) - 25% weight
• •Real Rate Pressure (10Y TIPS real yield changes) - 10% weight

Why it matters:

Multi-dimensional macro environment analysis captures key risk factors for Bitcoin: dollar strength pressures international flows, rising rates compete with risk assets, market fear drives flight-to-quality, and real rates affect discount rates for growth assets.

How it affects risk:

↑ dollar strength + ↑ rising rates + ↑ market fear + ↑ real rate pressure ⇒ ↑ risk; yield curve inversion adds recession risk premium

Update cadence & staleness:

Daily updates; stale >48h

Primary sources:

Caveats:

Real rates (TIPS) may have data gaps. VIX momentum can be volatile. Dollar strength effects vary by global liquidity conditions. Yield curve inversions are rare but high-impact events.